Given the moment we are in here in Milan and in Italy, due to the Coronavirus emergency, a lot of people are letting their emotion taking over their rational side.
One of the reasons for this is the availability bias, that is the most recent piece of information, the one which is the most frequent, extreme, rich and negative, influences us and prevents us from taking logical decisions. A cognitive bias is a prejudice influencing the reality around us, not linked to real, objective elements but only to a personal perception, filtering reality, and which turns into a belief. And the more intense and frequent the piece of information is the more powerful the bias becomes.
If we want to be Strategic Thinkers again, we need decision making processes to overthrow our emotions and enable us to define the right way in a world full of uncertainties, confidently and coherently, especially “when we don’t know what to do”.
What follows is a Decalogue for Strategic Thinkers to make quality decisions.
Step 1 – Ask the right questions, define the real goal
Ask yourself what you want to do, why you are doing it, the risks and opportunities, what you want to achieve (values and trade-offs). Mitigate biases through best- and worst-case scenarios (to undock yourself), evaluate contradictory information, do not comply to what your boss or the authority say but being critic and positive.
Step 2 – Involve the right people
Involving the right people let you have the right information and enrich your frame to see the problem from different POVs so that you can take better decisions.
Step 3 – Explore the different alternatives
Generate creative, doable, engaging and significantly different alternatives enables you to explore new opportunities and find solutions you didn’t think about.
Step 4 – Gather reliable information on the alternatives and compare them each with their risks and values
You gather reliable information for the alternatives you generated to evaluate which are their uncertainties, the strong and weak points.
You then compare the alternatives each with its values and risks to see the impact they can have on your organization and on the various external stakeholder.
Step 5 – Commitment to Action
Choose an alternative coherent both with your goals and your Identity (Vision, Mission, Values) and your company strategy.
We now use the Decalogue for Strategic Thinkers to the decision Beppe Sala, Mayor of Milan, and the Salone del Mobile organizers to postpone the event from April to June and let’s see if it was a quality decision.
A notice before you keep on reading: I don’t have information on how difficult could be for design companies to organize and put up their booths, to how risk-averse they are, what their clients want/would like, on Ente Fiera timing, the impact on the climate of uncertainty, etc… This is simply an occasion to examine the situation we are now in critically, to generate value and mitigate our emotions. A step from what it is like now to what it should be like.
Here a link to the news (in Italian)
“organizers highlighted that, given the continuing health emergency, entrepreneurs in the sector and Fiera di Milano, have decided to postpone this most important global event to the end of Spring. The Salone del Mobile gathers over 2.200 exhibitors from around the world and about 600 young designers. It is the right decision – commented Mayor Beppe Sala –. I am asking to mi friends in the home sector to make this effort because Milan can’t stop. We have to work to stop the virus from spreading but we must not, on the other hand, spread the virus of distrust. Milan must go on”.
And we will analyse the decision through the Lean Decision Quality® (decision-making methodology, based on Neuroscience, that is how people usually take decisions and on Prescriptive Decisions Science, that is, how people should take decisions) Canvas, which enables us to think visually, logically, creatively and analytically, starting from a goal to reach a quality decision, in 5 steps.
A note
This decision, whether it is right, good, or bad – the article is from 25-02-2020, was taken in the moment of highest panic level.
Step 1 – Ask the right questions, define the real goal
“It is the right decision – commented Mayor Beppe Sala”: why is it right? Based on what? Based on which scenario? Who is it right for? Is it the right decision or a quality decision?
“We have to work to stop the virus from spreading but we must not, on the other hand, spread the virus of distrust. Milan must go on.” Is distrust/panic/terror spreading? How many people are affected compared to the total number of people? How many people died? Who dies? Are we using the right terms to define this viral flu? Are we spreading the right image of Italy? Are we reliable and can people trust us in this situation?
What are we going to do? è Postpone the Salone del Mobile to June
Paradigm shift (the right question is)è Assessing whether to postpone the Salone (I open to the alternatives)
Why are we going to do it? è Because of coronavirus
Is it coherent with Salone’s identity and strategy? è It is coherent with its identity and strategy
Step 2 – Involve the right people
Who do we involve and whom do we share the decision with? è We share it with local authorities, organizers, exhibitors, local health authorities, virologists, clients (we look at the problem from different POVs)
Step 3 – Explore the various alternatives
Which are our alternatives? è The alternatives we generated are: wait, situation is under control (it is contained), positive development of the situation, negative development of the situation. These alternatives enable us to consider various scenarios and undock ourselves from our initial idea
Step 4 – Gather reliable information on the alternatives and compare them each with their risks and values
What do we know and do not know? è We know the situation is confined and that it could get better through prevention and with the right weather. We don’t know its possible evolution now, because it is to early to take a decision
Which are our choices? è The best choice could be wait until we gather further information, being coherent with all the stakeholders of Salone del Mobile, assessing its impact (risks and values).
I always start from the idea that “I decide my idea only through knowledge”
What is the benefit of starting from an idea, exploring the alternatives and then choosing the best one? If I start from this, I have two benefits: if my initial idea, once I have explored the alternatives, is the best, I am more motivated to go on (and I work to make it better), otherwise I choose the alternative generating an higher value for me (evaluate the impact on internal and external stakeholders)
Step 5 – Commitment to Action
Do we commit to action? è We now have a clear idea of what we want to achieve and the way to go.
This process can be used for any kind of business decision (as it is an irrevocable financial resource allocation), both in usual and panic conditions and for complex solutions as well.
Let our Rational and Creative side take over our emotions, especially in uncertain moments. This enables us to generate Value and opportunities.
Overall, when there is a great uncertainty and many co-occurring factors/variables, it is better not to take a decision immediately, but postpone it to gather more information and consider other variables/elements/experts that can increase the global quality of the decision and increase the chances to get good results.
I hope this exercise can help think that we are human beings and we can make mistakes. But, by fostering multifunctional multisectoral, multicultural diversity, by opening to different POVs and using a method (processes, toolsets, mindsets), we can exponentially increase the quality of our judgment in complex situations.
Dear reader, I would love to hear your feedback.
